Up to 100M mobile subscriptions up for scrubbing;
another 80M likely coming up by January 2013
180M deactivations would help ARPUs to inch up but
tele-density would be faced with decline
BANGALORE, 16 OCTOBER, 2012: According to a release from telecom
market analysis provider BusinessandMarket.net, the mobile subscriptions base
in India will steadily shrink over the coming months and is expected to be
around 880 million by December 2012 and 800 million by December 2014.
“There is no reason to expect that
the worst would be over after the India mobile services industry reported net
negative additions in the months of July and August 2012. On the contrary, it
would be developing into a trend that would last for the coming 18-24 months,”
said Deepak Kumar, Founder Analyst, BusinessandMarket.net.
“There already is a 10 percent to
12 percent redundancy in the form of inactive subscribers, which would be
further increased by another six to eight percent when the free-roaming regime
sets in, expectedly around January 2013. Consequently, between 160 and 180
million subscription could become eligible for de-activation,” Deepak added.
BusinessandMarket believes that these
many subscriptions would be hard to scrub for operators in very short periods
and operators would run the risk of sending negative or disruptive signals to
investors, partners and other stakeholders. Therefore the deactivations are
expected to be spread out over longer time frames. Operators are likely to
prefer scrubbing 6-7 million inactive subscriptions per month, and would not
like to delete more than 9-10 million subscriptions a month.
However, given that there also
would be new subscriber additions, the net negative additions would get
somewhat moderated. Exceptions apart, the average net negative additions are
likely to be in the range of four to five million subscriptions a month for the
forecast period of 2012 to 2014.
“This is expected to have positive
fallout for the industry in terms of increased average revenue per subscription
(ARPU), among other benefits but would negatively impact the tele-density of
the country for the forecast period under consideration,” Deepak added.
About BusinessandMarket.net:
BusinessandMarket is an insights
service provider focused on IT and telecom, and addresses analysis-based
information needs of technology users and business decision makers and planners
across IT and telecom vendor organizations and investment communities. It also
caters to assumptions-and-forecasting needs of analysts at market research,
advisory and consulting organizations.
Queries:
Snail Mail: #006,
Vineyard Fantasy, Vijaya Bank Colony, Banaswadi, Bangalore 560 043
About the Analyst:
Deepak Kumar is Founder Analyst at
BusinessandMarket.net. His focus areas are strategic business and market
advisory, encompassing analysis and forecasting. He carries more than 21 years
of experience, of which 12 years have been in the fields of market research,
advisory and consulting in the ICT domain.
He was earlier Research Director at
IDC, India and spearheaded research and advisory across segments such as
telecom, mobile devices, and LAN and WLAN networking, among various other responsibilities.
Over the past years, he has
published several research reports and presented on a wide variety of topics
including telecom, mobility, data center, cloud, social media and green IT.
He has been a regular speaker at
various industry events, is widely quoted in the ICT business media and also
blogs regularly. He has also been a columnist for leading publications.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Leave your comment